Eiropas dabasgāzes nākotnes cenas uzkāpa augstākajā līmenī kopš 2023. gada oktobra pēc tam, kad Jaungada dienā apstājās Krievijas gāzes plūsmas uz Eiropu caur Ukrainu.
Nīderlandes TTF, Eiropas dabasgāzes etalona cena, pirmajā tirdzniecības dienā pēc tam, kad Krievijas gāze pārtrauca plūst uz Eiropu, cena pieauga par vairāk nekā 4% līdz 51 eiro par megavatstundu, kas ir augstākais līmenis kopš 2023. gada oktobra, bet pēc tam nedaudz pazeminājās.
1.janvārī pēc gadu desmitiem ilgas darbības tranzīta dēļ Krievijas imports pārstāja ienākt Eiropas Savienībā caur Ukrainu, jo darījuma termiņš beidzās, radot bažas par ātrāku krātuvju iztukšošanu.
Eiropas gāzes krājumi ir izsmelti visstraujāk kopš 2021. gada, sasniedzot aptuveni 75% pēdējo nedēļu īpaši aukstā laika dēļ Eiropā.
Pēc nozares organizācijas Gas Infrastructure Europe datiem, gāzes apjoms bloka krātuvēs no septembra beigām, kad beidzas papildināšanas sezona, līdz decembra vidum samazinājies par aptuveni 19%.
Eiropā nepastāv tūlītējas enerģētikas krīzes vai deficīta risks, un Eiropas Savienība (ES) negaida tūlītēju ietekmi uz patēriņa cenām. Taču Eiropa, šķiet, ir neaizsargātāka pret tirgus svārstībām, ja tā vēlas aizstāt trūkstošo dabasgāzi, jo gāzes cenas ir pieaugušas par 50% salīdzinājumā ar iepriekšējo gadu. Augstākas enerģijas cenas varētu vēl vairāk pasliktināt bloka konkurētspēju un palielināt izmaksas mājsaimniecībām.
Cenas var pieaugt arī tad, ja Eiropa pievērsīsies palielināt sašķidrinātās dabasgāzes (SDG) importu. Centrāleiropas valstis ir visneaizsargātākās pret piekļuves zaudēšanu Krievijas dabasgāzei caur Ukrainu, lai gan tām ir alternatīvs maršruts TurkStream Krievijas dabasgāzes saņemšanai, taču ar šo savienojumu nepietiek, lai pilnībā kompensētu Ukrainas maršruta zaudējumus.
Eiropa meklē citus risinājumus
Ietekme būs īpaši jūtama Ungārijā un Slovākijā, kurām saskaņā ar Bruegel teikto Ukrainas tranzīta maršruts 2023. gadā apmierināja 65% no gāzes pieprasījuma.
Eiropas Komisija ir izstrādājusi vairākus risinājumus, lai palīdzētu skartajām valstīm, tostarp apmierināt vajadzības, piegādājot Grieķijas, Turcijas un Rumānijas gāzi pa Transbalkānu maršrutu.
Kopumā nav bažu, ka ES šoziem beigsies gāze, tomēr pēc tam tās krātuves uzpildīšana varētu izmaksāt dārgāk, nekā gaidīts.
Gāzes cenas nākamajai vasarai nesen pieauga virs 2025.–2026. gada ziemas cenām, tāpēc krājumu atjaunošana būs dārgāka, ziņo Bloomberg, atsaucoties uz Kopenhāgenas Global Risk Management galveno analītiķi Arnu Lomanu Rasmusenu, kurš sacīja: “Pastāv arvien lielāks risks. ka ES pabeigs ziemu ar zemu gāzes krātuves līmeni, padarot to papildināšanu dārgu.”
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